Friday, June 24, 2016

Observational Note

Great Britain’s vote yesterday to leave the European Union is the nationalistic impulses and anxieties that is driving forces propelling Donald Trump’s campaign.

The Brexit vote signals is the intensity of, both the breadth and depth, of the unhappiness with the status quo, with traditional institutions and probably more broadly, a continuing disquiet—there’s probably a better word, but we’ll use disquiet for a second—with, with the real and perceived consequences of globalization.

The new battle line doesn’t run through left and right, but rather between those who subscribe to the present political consensus and those who have lived its failures and want to shake it up—disruptively, if necessary.

The British will be fine, though given the lupine smiles that surely spread across the faces of European nationalists last night, the EU may not. Right now a political tidal wave is rising in the West, an inchoate deluge driven by years of failed centralization and economic policy, one that threatens to drown traditional parties and submerge political establishments.

Brexit, along with both the Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders "waves" in the presidential primaries, speaks to a growing sentiment among voters that the national community should take precedence over the international one in how policies are framed and executed.

Brexit signifies a weariness with continuing to expand the Euro-Atlantic eastward and making Russia's problems with its neighbors Europe's problems, as some members arguing that if NATO had paid much more attention to dealing with the cross-Mediterranean threats to European security, rather than on being drawn into playing geopolitical games in Eurasia, the migration crisis might have been avoided or blunted—and thus one of the key drivers of Brexit might have been neutralized.

The rise of anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe, including in Britain, has been fueled by the Syrian crisis; 

the roots of the Syrian crisis can be traced back to our invasion of Iraq, as George W. Bush administration had achieved a “breaking of the ‘dictatorial stability’ ” in the region.

Hassan Nasrallah said his party would "increase our presence in Aleppo... because the real, strategic, greatest battle is in Aleppo and the surrounding area. a new phase, of military operations in Syria that will be fought in the north, specifically in the area of Aleppo