LastDayWatchers know and understand
Message to Bibi, many Republicans now acknowledge in private that they were handed both a political and a policy defeat on the nuclear deal. Since Congress left town for its August recess, momentum has largely been with the White House
The pro-deal side of the fight has been willing to threaten the political futures of Democrats who oppose the president, while opponents of the deal have not.
Democrats may want to support an alternative leader in the Senate to Schumer, who was the consensus candidate to replace Harry Reid when he retires next year.
The only other Democrat who has come out against the deal since Schumer's announcement is Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who was forced to give up his seat as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this spring after being indicted by the Justice Department on corruption charges.
30 Democrats have said they will back the president. Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jeff Merkley of Oregon have yet to say how they will vote, but all are eventually expected to come out in favor of the Iran deal.
Each undecided Democrat will have to weigh the risk of voter disapproval for supporting the deal against the intra-party pressure to back the president and the position of their presumptive presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton.
According to one whip count from a prominent Republican Senate office, there are now only 12 truly undecided votes among the Senate Democrats
The White House will win enough Democrats to stave off a Congressional rejection of the Iran deal, the fight now is over whether the president can stop that resolution from even coming to a vote (the White House will win that fight too!)