LastDayWatchers understand why "Awakening 2.0" is fool's gold
Once bitten, twice shy, so why, only a few years later, would the Sunnis go for what seems to be essentially the same bad deal?
The U.S. is to form Sunni “national guard units”, a armored Sunni militias with a more marketable name to fight IS by paying and arming them to do so.
What could possibly go wrong?
These militias are to fight only on Sunni territory under Sunni leadership, they will have no more connection to the Baghdad government than you do, how will that help make Iraq an inclusive, unitary state? What will happen, in the long run, once even more sectarian armed militias are let loose?
Despite its unambiguous history of failure, the “success” of the Anbar Awakening remains a persistent myth among American conservative thinkers
So don’t be fooled in the short term by media-trumpeted local examples of Sunni-Shia cooperation against IS, consider them temporary alliances of convenience on a tribe-by-tribe basis that might not outlast the next attack, that is nowhere near a strategy for national victory.
During the previous Iraq war, the US spent nearly a decade and hundreds of billions of dollars building, arming and mentoring Iraqi military and police units, only to see them overwhelmed by Isis, General Lloyd Austin, the commanding officer of US Central Command offered no indication as to why a far less resourced initiative in 2014 will succeed
“It’s difficult to designate a specific point in time when they’ll be able to do this,” Austin said, offering instead “incremental” evidence of Kurdish success and an Iraqi division’s advance toward Ramadi in support of a division already there.
What we do know is the United States and Israel were seriously planning a war against Iran in 2006, or at least, an air campaign to hit the Iranian nuclear program and other military targets since the US invasion of Iraq.
What is it that postponed this war all these years, making it an unlikely scenario and undesirable for the US army despite Israeli objections?