"Tehran will have tremendous influence in Baghdad to the point of being able to block Iraqi initiatives Iran opposes."
This influence will increase as the U.S. withdrawal concludes and it becomes clear there will be no sudden reversal in the withdrawal policy. Iraqi politicians’ calculus must account for the nearness of Iranian power and the increasing distance and irrelevance of American power.
The situation in Syria complicates all of this. The minority Alawite sect has dominated the Syrian government since 1970, when the current president’s father — who headed the Syrian air force — staged a coup.
The Alawites are a heterodox Muslim sect related to a Shiite offshoot and make up about 7 percent of the country’s population, which is mostly Sunni. The new Alawite government was Nasserite in nature, meaning it was secular, socialist and built around the military. When Islam rose as a political force in the Arab world, the Syrians — alienated from the Sadat regime in Egypt — saw Iran as a bulwark.
The Iranian Islamist regime gave the Syrian secular regime immunity against Shiite fundamentalists in Lebanon. The Iranians also gave Syria support in its external adventures in Lebanon, and more important, in its suppression of Syria’s Sunni majority.
Syria and Iran were particularly aligned in Lebanon. In the early 1980s, after the Khomeini revolution, the Iranians sought to increase their influence in the Islamic world by supporting radical Shiite forces.
Hezbollah was one of these. Syria had invaded Lebanon in 1975 on behalf of the Christians and opposed the Palestine Liberation Organization, to give you a sense of the complexity. Syria regarded Lebanon as historically part of Syria, and sought to assert its influence over it. Via Iran, Hezbollah became an instrument of Syrian power in Lebanon.
Iran’s goal is to increase the risk such that Saudi Arabia would calculate that accommodation is more prudent than resistance. Changing the map can help achieve this.
There are no U.S. armored divisions on the ground between Iran and Lebanon. Iran’s ability to bring sufficient force to bear in such a sphere increases the risks to the Saudis in particular.
To put Iran back into its box, something must be done about the Iraqi political situation. Given the U.S. withdrawal, Washington has little influence there. All of the relationships the United States built were predicated on American power protecting the relationships. With the Americans gone, the foundation of those relationships dissolves. And even with Syria, the balance of power is shifting.
The United States has three choices. Accept the evolution and try to live with what emerges. Attempt to make a deal with Iran — a very painful and costly one. Or go to war.
The first assumes Washington can live with what emerges. The second depends on whether Iran is interested in dealing with the United States. The third depends on having enough power to wage a war and to absorb Iran’s retaliatory strikes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. All are dubious"
Hezbollah considering military coup if Assad falls
"As soon as Hezbollah will sense that the collapse of Assad's regime is imminent, armed cells will quickly begin operating to seize control of Beirut's eastern and western parts," one of the sources told al-Arabia.
"This operation, which will be coordinated with Hezbollah's allies, including Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, will be carried out under the banner of 'protecting the resistance and its weapons inside Lebanon,'"
About a week and a half ago Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel and the US that a war against Iran and Syria would lead to an all-out regional conflict.
"They should understand that a war on Iran and Syria will not remain in Iran and Syrian territory, but it will engulf the whole region and there is no escaping this reality,” Nasrallah said during a televised speech honoring "Martyrs' Day."
According to the source, Hezbollah will explain that the takeover "as an act that is aimed at countering Lebanese forces plotting to suppress the resistance in cooperation with foreign elements - headed by Israel"
Syria hopes to cash in on support Iraq, Lebanon to counter sanctions
"Syria, isolated over its deadly protest crackdown, hopes to cash in on support from neighbors Iraq and Lebanon to counter Arab sanctions that threaten to choke its economy.
“We know how to manage when the going gets rough, because we have been facing sanctions for years,” a Syrian official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“Russia is our political shield while Iraq, Lebanon and Iran are our economic lungs,” the official added."
Just as the May 15th Prophecy have proclaimed with 100% accuracy written at LastDayWatchers