Sunday, October 10, 2010

Binocular Snapshot for 10/10/2010

LastDayWatchers consider how 100% accurate the May 15th Prophecy  have corrected you vision with 20/20 lens on the truth; of Iran growth; instead of the propaganda of "isolation", and of the Cut Down the Coagulation and the Contractions

Ahmadinejad Visit To Lebanon A Boost For Hezbollah

"A visit to Lebanon this week by Iran's president will give a welcome boost to powerful Shiite ally Hezbollah, one of Tehran's most crucial sources of foreign influence, and will include a provocative jaunt to the border with archenemy Israel.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's trip is a bold demonstration by Iran that it is undeterred by U.S. attempts to isolate it and roll back the clout Tehran has built up around the Middle East through its alliances with militant groups like Hezbollah and its accelerating nuclear program.

The Iranian president is also wading into Lebanon's worst political crisis in years by putting Tehran's weight behind Hezbollah as the group feuds with its rivals in Lebanon's Western-backed political coalition. That tension threatens to bring down the fragile unity government in which both serve and, in a worst case scenario, push the well-armed Hezbollah to violently seize control of Beirut as it did in a similar showdown two years ago.

In a sign of how sensitive the visit is, Hezbollah's rivals in government released a statement saying Ahmadinejad is seeking to transform Lebanon into "an Iranian base on the Mediterranean."

Iran is pouring cash into Lebanon. Most of it goes to Hezbollah, but in a sign that Tehran is seeking to extend its support base in the country, some of the cash is helping rebuild homes in southern Lebanon's Shiite heartland that were damaged in the 2006 war with Israel.

"I urge the Lebanese people and the Palestinians to welcome the president of Iran," Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said in a weekend speech, as Iranian flags and Ahmadinejad posters popped up along Beirut's airport road.

Iran is seeking to prove its influence in the region is strong despite Washington's threats that Tehran's nuclear program will lead to more sanctions and more isolation. Iran has pursued an aggressive foreign policy in recent weeks: visiting Lebanon at a time of national tumult, stopping by Syria just after a U.S. delegation on his way to the United Nations last month and ridiculing U.S. efforts to forge a Mideast peace deal.

Iran has maintained a strong hand in Lebanon through Hezbollah, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization and which boasts a heavy arsenal of rockets capable of reaching deep inside Israel.

Hezbollah is part of Lebanon's government, sharing power with Western-backed parties led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri. But the militant group, whose arsenal is separate from that of the national army, is Lebanon's strongest armed force - a fact that has drawn new concerns in recent weeks as the political crisis here deepens.

A U.N. tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is expected to indict members of Hezbollah as soon as this month, which many fear could lead to violence between the Shiite force and Hariri's mainly Sunni allies. The slain leader is the father of the current prime minister.

Washington, too, has come out against the trip. Last week, U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton raised concerns about the visit with the Lebanese president, Michel Suleiman.

"We expressed our concern about it given that Iran, through its association with groups like Hezbollah, is actively undermining Lebanon's sovereignty," Crowley said in Washington.

Washington is at odds with Iran over its nuclear program, which it fears is aimed at making weapons, and with a military buildup by Tehran that it believes threatens the United States' Arab allies in the region as well as Israel. Iran says its nuclear activity is only for producing energy.

During Ahmadinejad's Oct. 13-14 visit, he plans to stop at sites including Bint Jbeil, a border village that was bombed during the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war. It is barely two and a half miles (four kilometers) from the Israeli border.

In his speech Saturday, Nasrallah denied Lebanese media reports that Ahmadinejad planned to hurl stones at the border. In the past, it was common for Lebanese to throw stones toward the border in celebration of the 2000 withdraw of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after 18 years of occupation.

Hezbollah's military strength has long worried the U.S. and its close ally Israel.

In August, U.S. lawmakers in Congress said they were concerned about weapons falling into the wrong hands and put a hold on $100 million of the $720 million in military aid that U.S. administrations have provided to Lebanon's ill-equipped army since 2006.

Iran promptly offered to step in and fill the gap and slammed the U.S. for offering help with strings attached.

Nasrallah suggested that Iran's cash infusions help all Lebanese, including through the rebuilding of war-damaged homes in the south.

"Hezbollah does not trust the Lebanese government's bureaucracy," Nasrallah said, "and the Iranians paid in cash."

The message got through to many Lebanese.

"Ahmadinejad's visit is meant to extend a helping hand, without anything in return," said Zeinab Mrad, a 50-year-old Shiite woman from Khiam village, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon"

And of the weakening of the position of Israel lost (little brother U.S. & big brother Britain) & found (Judah)

Washington's push on Pakistan to get tough on militants on its territory is prompted by worries about an attack on U.S. soil

"Blunt words in Washington about Pakistan's failure to aggressively go after insurgents coincided with a cross-border incursion by U.S.-led NATO forces that killed two Pakistani frontier guards and wounded several others. The incident ignited public outrage and prompted officials to close a key border crossing to NATO supply convoys for days.

While Pakistanis burned trucks carrying war goods, U.S. officials publicly apologized to Islamabad for the incursion on one hand while holding their ground on the need for the Pakistani military to deal aggressively with insurgent groups.

"We have a very difficult and complicated situation in Pakistan. We have worked hard on this relationship. We understand it's important to our security," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said last week.

The latest tensions come just ahead of the U.S.-Pakistani Strategic Dialogue later this month, and the Washington talks would go more smoothly if the strains of the last two weeks were patched up by then.

"I think it's going to be critical in the next few weeks as they prepare for the strategic dialogue between Pakistan and the U.S. ... that they don't have any of these flare-ups, neither do they have any lingering doubts about each other's intentions," said Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

That will require a lot of "direct communication," he added, and not dealing with each other via the media.

The administration official agreed that "ratcheting up pressure on Pakistan ... is not the way to get them to do things."

"With Pakistan, as with most countries, the more public and vocal you are, the harder things get"

Some analysts said the most recent flare-up appeared to be driven by the U.S. need to show some progress ahead of President Barack Obama's December strategy review for the Afghanistan war, which is expected to set the stage for the start of a U.S. transition out of the country in July 2011.

"What seems to be driving all this is the shortening U.S. timetable for beginning the transition out of Afghanistan and the need to create some military momentum and space," Nawaz said.

Unless Gen. David Petraeus, the top NATO commander in Afghanistan, can show significant movement toward U.S. objectives by July 2011, he will have difficulty justifying maintaining 100,000 U.S. troops in the country, a congressional aide said on condition of anonymity.

A congressionally mandated White House report sent to Capitol Hill this week assessing the war strategy said Pakistan had failed to move aggressively against al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban last spring, in part for political reasons.

The Obama administration official denied any "Machiavellian plan" to put pressure on Islamabad to move more aggressively ahead of the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue or Obama's December strategy review.

"The report was due when it was due," the official said, calling it a candid assessment to help Congress understand the challenges. The remarks highlighted in news accounts were more negative than the overall report, including classified sections that remain secret, he said.

"We were trying to tell Congress that the situation in Pakistan is rather dire and that we're concerned," the official said. "We're worried that the day after tomorrow, there could be an attack that originates from Pakistan, from one of these groups, and that things will change dramatically."

So get the 100% accurate infomation on what is about to happen next by reading the May 15th Prophecy written at LastDayWatchers